It all began with a bit of detective work. Erie County Legislature Republican Leader John Mills of Orchard Park and the members of his caucus knew the proposed 2013 budget of County Executive Mark Poloncarz was inflated...They just weren't sure where the extra money was..

“Finally, we could see where the money had been put,” says Leader Mills. “We found that the Risk Retention Fund was overfunded and also the Safety Net. Fringe benefits, which are normally funded at 54-56% were being funded at 62% in the Poloncarz budget. So we knew the places we could cut in order to avoid the property tax increase the County Executive was proposing.”

Still, even if the five members of the Legislature's GOP caucus were united in making the cuts, it wouldn't matter. They needed six votes in the eleven member Legislature, which meant they would have to convince at least one Democrat.

“Fortunately, Amherst Democratic Legislator Tom Loughran had been looking at the numbers too and his numbers were very close to ours,” Mills points out. “So the result was that we were able to agree on a series of amendments to the County Executive's budget that allowed us to avoid a tax increase, which we simply did not think was necessary.”

What is Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown's strategy for defeating potential challenger Bernie Tolbert in the September Democratic primary?

Highly reliable sources are telling us it's a strategy of define and target that is not totally dissimilar to the approach President Barack Obama used to defeat Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race.

“The Brown campaign is going to use its financial advantage to push up Bernie's negatives by laying out the facts related to his past issue involving sexual harassment,” says one source. “Look, this material has been tested and in my entire political career, I have never seen a more negative reaction on the part of voters to certain material that is on the public record in the one lawsuit that is pending vs. Tolbert and one that has already been settled. Believe me, the Mayor's people are going to use this material to negatively define Bernie early at a time when the challenger is not going to be able to match the Brown campaign's spending.”

According to our sources, when the Tolbert campaign says they are going to concentrate on targeting likely Dem voters, what they are really saying is: We are not going to have the money to compete with the Mayor, so we are going to have to concentrate our spending near the end on a small number of voters....The Mayor is going to have the resources to do both, that is defining Tolbert negatively using a carpet bombing media strategy and also targeting prime voters with mailings and door to door in the weeks before primary day...This is why the Brown campaign is so confident as the primary season approaches.

Highly reliable sources are telling NewWNYPolitics in an exclusive interview that the re-election campaign of Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown has sent a letter to Erie County Democratic Chairman Jeremy Zellner formally asking for the party's endorsement.

Said one source: “Now the ball is in Chairman Zellner's court. Let's see what he does.”

We are hearing that there could be considerable repercussions for a number of candidates running this year in the city depending on what the Chairman decides. For example, if the party decides to endorse Mayor Brown for re-election, there would likely be no major primary challenges to headquarters endorsed candidates in Buffalo in 2013. If not, there could be intra-party challenges to a number of Dem incumbents, if for no other reason than to drive up turnout in the inner city and elsewhere in the September Democratic primary.

Much more on the Mayor's high powered re-election strategy Monday morning on NewWNYPolitics.net.

The race for the Democratic nomination for Erie County Sheriff will be a topsy turvy affair in which some who would be expected to be backers of one candidate will be backing the other and vice versa

Democratic mayoral candidate Bernie Tolbert will run a campaign that will attempt to target likely Dem primary voters while avoiding spending a lot of money to reach others. It's a way of trying to win even though you know you're going to be outspent, especially if you start doing well.

Hearty congratulations and best wishes to Niagara County Republican Chairman Mike Norris, a class act from beginning to end, who is leaving his party post to become Lockport City Attorney. 

Can Democrats run a successful campaign against Erie County Sheriff Tim Howard by accusing him of neglecting the county lockups while falling short of constitutional standards?

Sheriff Howard doesn't think so.

“One thing that some people don't understand who have criticized us for our handling of health and mental health related matters in the Holding Center is that, by law, matters involving health, mental health, and upkeep of the county jails, outside of day to day maintenance, are the responsibility of the County Executive, not the Sheriff,” he pointed out in an exclusive interview with NewWNYPolitics on Wednesday. “I don't think many of our critics are aware of that as well as many other things.”

For example, did you know that not only Sheriff Howard but previous county sheriffs, including Gallivan and Higgins have asked the county legislature for money to hire more deputies and cut down on deputy overtime, only to be rebuffed?

“It's true,” Sheriff Howard states. “We've all wanted to hire more deputies and restrict excessive overtime, including me. I don't really like it because I think this should be a county responsibility, but finally the state had to step in and say, 'All of this excessive overtime isn't conducive to health and safety.' and now we are hiring 15 new deputies twice a year. Right now we are under budget for deputy overtime and that is a good thing.”

There will be a fundraiser for the Amherst Town Judge campaign of Barbara Nuchereno on Thurs., May 2, 5:30-7:30pm at the 31 Club; 31 Johnson Park, Buffalo. The donation is $150 per person. Checks can be made out to: Friends of Barbara Nuchereno; 8261 Golden Oak Circle; Williamsville, NY 14221. RSVP to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Some observers are explaining the reason for outgoing Poloncarz Administration Veterans Affairs guru David Benitz's departure has to do with the fact that this former US Army Major could not get used to clearing all of his decisions with members of the County Executive's staff. The result will likely be that former Comptroller David Shenk will get the Vets job, an appropriate development since Shenk left a job he could have held on to for life as Boston Town Clerk at the invitation of the County Executive to run for Comptroller and now finds himself out of a job.

Cheektowaga Dem Chairman Frank Max is reportedly undecided between Bert Dunn and Dick Dobson in the Sheriff's race, though a number of his supporters are backing Dobson. Reportedly, Max gets along well with both.

Getting back to the Comptroller's post, it's interesting but not surprising that there is still no serious Democratic candidate for this position. Part of the problem is that, because of political considerations shared by both parties, the salary for the job has been kept artificially low. In fact, the Deputy Comptroller makes considerably more than the Comptroller. The result: It is very hard to recruit qualified candidates to run for comptroller, especially CPAs who can make a lot more elsewhere.

Next Monday's meeting of the Erie County Democratic Town Chairs at Curly's in Lackawanna is shaping up to be a showdown between the two Dem candidates for Sheriff, Bert Dunn and Dick Dobson. After dinner and preliminaries the pair are going to be asked to sit side by side at about 7:30pm and respond to questions and comments from each other and the town chairs in attendance.

Says Erie County Town Chairs Chairperson Gayle Syposs of the City of Tonawanda: “I'm sick and tired of people making comments or voicing criticisms of the candidates without ever being willing to have the guts to say those things to the candidates face to face. At our meeting, that will change. The candidates will be able to respond directly to things like those accusations on that other web site regarding Bert Dunn and something that is supposed to have happened in Hamburg, which I doubt, and the text message and all the rest and so will Dick Dobson.”

Syposs adds that what she is looking for is not a fight between the two but an honest exchange that will clear the air.

In other news, we agree with Syposs that the things being printed on that other site about Bert Dunn are nonsense. Whether you agree or disagree with all of his views, you have to acknowledge that Dunn is a man of dedication and integrity as is Dick Dobson..

“It's up to you!”....Reportedly, Erie County Democratic Chairman Jeremy Zellner offered this challenge to his Executive Committee, letting them know that the choice of an endorsed Dem candidate for Sheriff is theirs alone. While there may be some grumbling, it looks as though the Committee is ready to go along with choosing Dunn for the endorsement, though the Chairman is clearly giving his people extra time to make their decision.

Concerning that infamous text message, most Committee members seem to be taking the view that there is no Democratic or Republican way of being Sheriff, though with some definite dissenters. Of course, the big question will be: How will Democratic primary voters feel? Even if he doesn't get the party endorsement as it is likely he won't, Dobson is preparing to run a formidable campaign in September.

By the way, supporters of Chairman Zellner are reporting that he was able to raise some good money at his recent Chairman's fundraiser, also at Curly's, and that he has raised over $200,000 since taking on his current post

There will be a fundraiser in support of the campaign of Kara A. Buscaglia for Amherst Town Judge on Tues., April 30, 5:30-7:30pm at La Scala Restaurant; 9210 Transit Rd., East Amherst. The donation levels are: $99 per person; $150 for Bronze Sponsors; $250 for Silver Sponsors; and $500 for Gold Sponsors. Checks can be made payable to: Friends of Kara A. Buscaglia; 157 Royal Parkway West; Williamsville, NY 14221.

There will be a fundraiser in support of the re-election campaign of Buffalo City Court Judge Kevin Keane on Wed., May 1 from 6-8pm at Cole's Restaurant, 1104 Elmwood. The donation is a very affordable $50 per person. Checks can be made out to: The Committee To Re-Elect Judge Kevin Keane; PO 1087; Buffalo, NY 14220.